集市的摊主担心意外损失。小树用一组虚构摊位，观察风险怎样一起承担。Market stallholders worry about accidental losses. Mia models how fictional stalls can share risk.
第 1 步：把不确定损失放进风险池Step 1: Pool uncertain losses
一个摊位怎样面对大额意外？How can one stall face a large unexpected loss?
保险用保费汇集资源。约定事故发生时，按合同赔付。许多人分担少数人的损失。并不是所有风险都适合用同样方式承保。Insurance collects resources through premiums. Covered events lead to payments under a contract. Many people share losses experienced by some. Not all risks suit the same form of coverage.
第 2 步：平均损失不是准确预言Step 2: Average loss is not a prediction
收多少才可能够用？How much might the pool need?
若每摊损失概率为百分之一。每次损失一千，平均损失就是十。实际一年可能高于或低于平均。费用和储备也需考虑。If each stall has a 1% chance of losing 1,000, its expected loss is 10. An actual year may be above or below that average. Expenses and reserves also matter.
第 3 步：合同决定承保边界Step 3: The contract sets the boundary
买了保险，任何损失都赔吗？Does insurance pay for every loss?
保障范围、免责和限额都很重要。免赔额是需自行承担的部分之一。共同灾害可能让许多损失同时发生。保险不能让事故本身消失。Coverage, exclusions, and limits matter. A deductible is an amount the insured bears under specified terms. Shared disasters can cause many simultaneous losses. Insurance does not prevent the event itself.
🎮 机制实验室：观察，再判断🎮 Mechanism lab: observe, then decide
期望损失＝概率乘损失额。百摊平均相加；实际波动与共同灾害未模拟，也不是保费报价。Expected loss = probability × loss size. Add expectations for 100 stalls; actual variation and shared disasters are not modelled. Not a premium quote.
一句话记住它：Remember it:保险按合同分担风险，平均损失与实际赔付都有限制。Insurance shares risk under a contract, with uncertainty and limits on payments.
保险用保费汇集资源。Insurance collects resources through premiums.若每摊损失概率为百分之一。If each stall has a 1% chance of losing 1,000, its expected loss is 10.保障范围、免责和限额都很重要。Coverage, exclusions, and limits matter.
风险汇集与期望值：较高把握。虚构模型不代表保费报价；合同和监管因地区而异。High confidence in pooling and expected value. The model is not a premium quote; contracts and regulation vary by jurisdiction.
核对日期：2026 年 10 月 6 日。文字与配图由 AI 生成；已做来源核对及程序测试，待人工复核。Checked 6 October 2026. Text and illustrations are AI-generated. Sources and software checks were performed; human review is pending.
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